Washington July 23 2024: Vice President Kamala Harris opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to her, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
That compares with a marginal two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in last week’s poll before his Sunday exit from the race.
The new poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, followed both the Republican National Convention where Trump on Thursday formally accepted the nomination and Biden’s announcement on Sunday he was leaving the race and endorsing Harris.
Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.
While nationwide surveys give important signals of American support for political candidates, a handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the U.S. Electoral College, which ultimately decides who wins a presidential election.
A pollster with Trump’s campaign played down any polling showing an increase in Harris’ support, arguing that she was likely to see a temporary rise in popularity because of widespread media coverage of her new candidacy.
“That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a memo circulated to reporters by Trump’s campaign.
Candidates often expect a bump after formally accepting their party’s nomination at stage-managed, televised conventions such as the one that Trump had last week. But the poll showed no sign of that.
Bump or not, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll underscored the rationale for Biden dropping out of the race and for Harris replacing him on the ticket.
HARRIS SEEN AS SHARPER THAN BIDEN, TRUMP
Some 56% of registered voters agreed with a statement that Harris, 59, was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same of Trump, 78.
Only 22% of voters assessed Biden that way.
Biden, 81, ended his reelection effort after a debate with Trump in which he often stammered and failed to aggressively challenge attacks by Trump that included falsehoods.
