Karachi June 12 2025: CFA society Pakistan survey shows a mixed sentiment regarding the policy rate decision in June.
While a significant portion of respondents believe the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will maintain the current policy rate, others expect varying degrees of rate cuts:
• 49% of participants anticipate no change in the policy rate.
• 36% expect a 50 basis point (bps) decrease, indicating growing confidence in improving macroeconomic conditions.
• A smaller share, 12%, foresee a 100 bps reduction, suggesting expectations of more aggressive monetary easing.
• Just 3% predict a larger cut of 150 bps, representing a minority opinion that perhaps reflects a highly dovish outlook.
Outlook for December 2025 Policy Rate
When asked about the likely policy rate level by December 2025, the majority of respondents believe that the rate will continue to moderate over the coming months:
• 52% expect the rate to be at 10%, aligning with the market’s expectations for gradual easing.
• 33% foresee the rate dropping below 10%, signaling optimism about inflation control and economic recovery.
• Only 15% project the policy rate to remain at 11%, suggesting a relatively hawkish outlook.
