Washington DC August 10 2023: US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 3.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
“These numbers will come as a relief to those who worried that the July data would already reflect price pass-throughs from higher energy and food prices” says Mohamed A. El-Erian Economist.
“They will reinforce the majority market view that the Fed will refrain from hiking in September. The implied probability of a hike dropped from some 15% to below 10% following the CPI data release” he added.
The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The food index increased 0.2 percent in July after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in July. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July as the major energy component indexes were mixed.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. Indexes which increased in June include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, education, and recreation. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, medical care, and communication were among those that decreased over the month.
The all items index increased 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending July, slightly more than the 3.0- percent increase for the 12 months ending in June. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.7 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 12.5 percent for the 12 months ending July, and the food index increased 4.9 percent over the last year.
Food
The food index rose 0.2 percent in July. The food at home index increased 0.3 percent over the month, after being unchanged in June. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.5 percent in July as the index for beef increased 2.4 percent. The fruits and vegetables index increased 0.4 percent over the month and the other food at home index rose 0.2 percent. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.5 percent in July after decreasing in each of the previous 4 months. The nonalcoholic beverages index and the cereals and bakery products index were both unchanged in July.
The food away from home index rose 0.2 percent in July. The index for full service meals and the index for limited service meals both increased 0.2 percent over the month.
The food at home index rose 3.6 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery products rose 7.0 percent over the 12 months ending in July. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index declined 0.2 percent over the year. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 1.3 percent (dairy and related products) to 5.4 percent (both nonalcoholic beverages and other food at home). The index for food away from home rose 7.1 percent over the last year.
The index for full service meals rose 5.8 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose 7.1 percent over the same period.
Energy
The energy index rose 0.1 percent in July after increasing 0.6 percent in June. The gasoline index increased 0.2 percent in July, following a 1.0-percent increase in the previous month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 0.6 percent in July.)
Other energy components were mixed in July. The natural gas index increased 2.0 percent over the month, following five consecutive monthly decreases. The index for fuel oil also rose in July, increasing 3.0 percent. The index for electricity fell 0.7 percent in July, after increasing 0.9 percent in June.
The energy index fell 12.5 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index decreased 19.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the natural gas index fell 13.7 percent, and the fuel oil index fell 26.5 percent over the span. In contrast, the index for electricity rose 3.0 percent over the last year.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in July, as it did in June. The shelter index increased 0.4 percent over the month, the same increase as in June. The index for rent rose 0.4 percent in July, and the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.5 percent over the month. The index for lodging away from home decreased 0.3 percent in July after falling 2.0 percent in June.
The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. Among the other indexes that rose in July was the index for motor vehicle insurance, which increased 2.0 percent after rising 1.7 percent the preceding month. The indexes for education and recreation also increased in July.
Several indexes declined in July, led by the airline fares index, which fell 8.1 percent over the month, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. The index for used cars and trucks fell 1.3 percent in July, after decreasing 0.5 percent in June. The communication index declined 0.1 percent over the month, as did the new vehicles index and the household furnishings and operations index.
The medical care index fell 0.2 percent in July, after being unchanged the previous month. The index for hospital services decreased 0.4 percent over the month, while the index for physicians’ services rose 0.2 percent. The prescription drugs index was unchanged in July.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.7 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 7.7 percent over the last year, accounting for over two-thirds of the total increase in all items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+17.8 percent), recreation (+4.1 percent), new vehicles (+3.5 percent), and household furnishings and operations (+2.9 percent).
